US intelligence: Iran Situation Bleak
By MICHAEL D. EVANS
Published: August 24, 2007
The same people who last month told those of us who weren't living on another planet that al-Qaeda is likely to try attacking the United States again, have come out with another intelligence assessment, this time on Iran. The new National Intelligence Estimate -- reflecting the strategic consensus of the top experts of the US government's 16 spy agencies – says that the situation with Iran looks "bleak."
Bleak? A draft of the report obtained in advance by the Associated Press defines bleak as Iran still trying to manufacture nuclear weapons, still stockpiling ICBMs capable of reaching every capital in Europe, still threatening to "wipe Israel off the map," still infiltrating terrorists and weapons into Iraq, still being a fundamentalist Islamist theocratic military dictatorship.
For this we need 16 intelligence agencies? Do we actually need 16 agencies to conclude – one wonders how long it took – that Iran is still ruthless, fanatic, and continues to seek weapons of mass destruction – atomic, biological, or chemical – and would not hesitate to use them?
We have no doubt that Iran just keeps on doing pretty much what it has said it's been doing. The possible exception is that the Iranians so far deny doing what we know they have been doing -- helping fellow jihadists murder American soldiers in Iraq. This is not classified information but is, unfortunately, in dozens of news reports every day.
Is it news that we are still fighting in Iraq after six years and the war on global terrorism for at least as long, and despite our best efforts Islamist extremism is expanding? Don't we already know, with no estimate needed, that there is a rise in terrorist threats, that al-Qaeda has mutated and still threatens the US?
Iran is (still) supplying money and weapons to the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim extremist group Hezbullah, which is on the US government list of terrorist organizations. But much closer to home is Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which President George W. Bush has decided to designate a terrorist organization.
About 50 Guards members are believed to be in southern Iraq training Shi'ite militias to use mortars and rockets, Maj.-Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of US forces south of Baghdad, told reporters this week. "We are concerned primarily about the training of Shi'ite extremists. We think there are about 50 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards," Lynch said. He noted that rocket attacks were becoming "more accurate and more effective" due to the Iranians.
The estimate draft states: "Iran has been intensifying aspects of its lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants, particular the JAM."
The new intelligence estimate also predicts Iran will continue as "a main backer" of Hezbullah, along with Syria. I don't mean to belittle the efforts of our intelligence community, but what possible other conclusion is there? Iran created Hezbullah, which has always been its proxy in Lebanon, backed by Iran's other proxy, Syria. What "main backer"? Iran is the only backer.
The estimate foresees no regime change on the horizon. Excuse me, but isn't Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who is also commander in chief of the military – still in charge of the country, whose few dissidents either languish in prisons or have fled abroad?
Iran, meanwhile, claims to have uncovered American and Western spy rings and has thrown a number of Iranian-American tourists in jail. For this reason, the US government has warned citizens against traveling to Iran.
How should we act on the basis of the intelligence estimate? Maybe, since it confirms what we have always felt about the Iranians, that they sincerely want to obtain and would probably use nuclear weapons, we should at least consider a show of force. Perhaps with the Revolutionary Guards unit in Iraq providing a reason, a cruise missile attack on a Guards base inside Iran might be the wake-up call Iran needs.
*************************
Dr. Michael D. Evans is the author of the #1 New York Times bestseller, The Final Move Beyond Iraq, www.beyondiraq.com.
Published: August 24, 2007
The same people who last month told those of us who weren't living on another planet that al-Qaeda is likely to try attacking the United States again, have come out with another intelligence assessment, this time on Iran. The new National Intelligence Estimate -- reflecting the strategic consensus of the top experts of the US government's 16 spy agencies – says that the situation with Iran looks "bleak."
Bleak? A draft of the report obtained in advance by the Associated Press defines bleak as Iran still trying to manufacture nuclear weapons, still stockpiling ICBMs capable of reaching every capital in Europe, still threatening to "wipe Israel off the map," still infiltrating terrorists and weapons into Iraq, still being a fundamentalist Islamist theocratic military dictatorship.
For this we need 16 intelligence agencies? Do we actually need 16 agencies to conclude – one wonders how long it took – that Iran is still ruthless, fanatic, and continues to seek weapons of mass destruction – atomic, biological, or chemical – and would not hesitate to use them?
We have no doubt that Iran just keeps on doing pretty much what it has said it's been doing. The possible exception is that the Iranians so far deny doing what we know they have been doing -- helping fellow jihadists murder American soldiers in Iraq. This is not classified information but is, unfortunately, in dozens of news reports every day.
Is it news that we are still fighting in Iraq after six years and the war on global terrorism for at least as long, and despite our best efforts Islamist extremism is expanding? Don't we already know, with no estimate needed, that there is a rise in terrorist threats, that al-Qaeda has mutated and still threatens the US?
Iran is (still) supplying money and weapons to the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim extremist group Hezbullah, which is on the US government list of terrorist organizations. But much closer to home is Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which President George W. Bush has decided to designate a terrorist organization.
About 50 Guards members are believed to be in southern Iraq training Shi'ite militias to use mortars and rockets, Maj.-Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of US forces south of Baghdad, told reporters this week. "We are concerned primarily about the training of Shi'ite extremists. We think there are about 50 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards," Lynch said. He noted that rocket attacks were becoming "more accurate and more effective" due to the Iranians.
The estimate draft states: "Iran has been intensifying aspects of its lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants, particular the JAM."
The new intelligence estimate also predicts Iran will continue as "a main backer" of Hezbullah, along with Syria. I don't mean to belittle the efforts of our intelligence community, but what possible other conclusion is there? Iran created Hezbullah, which has always been its proxy in Lebanon, backed by Iran's other proxy, Syria. What "main backer"? Iran is the only backer.
The estimate foresees no regime change on the horizon. Excuse me, but isn't Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who is also commander in chief of the military – still in charge of the country, whose few dissidents either languish in prisons or have fled abroad?
Iran, meanwhile, claims to have uncovered American and Western spy rings and has thrown a number of Iranian-American tourists in jail. For this reason, the US government has warned citizens against traveling to Iran.
How should we act on the basis of the intelligence estimate? Maybe, since it confirms what we have always felt about the Iranians, that they sincerely want to obtain and would probably use nuclear weapons, we should at least consider a show of force. Perhaps with the Revolutionary Guards unit in Iraq providing a reason, a cruise missile attack on a Guards base inside Iran might be the wake-up call Iran needs.
*************************
Dr. Michael D. Evans is the author of the #1 New York Times bestseller, The Final Move Beyond Iraq, www.beyondiraq.com.
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